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The End Of Tsw?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Digital Draftsman, Aug 28, 2018.

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  1. MCGermanyFan

    MCGermanyFan Well-Known Member

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    Why are you all so worried anyway? Just why? Normally people don't and shouldn't care about the "problems" of a company. They just move on.
     
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  2. Medellinexpat

    Medellinexpat Well-Known Member

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    Because if DTG fails train simulation would be in a bad spot. And I personally don’t think that’s a good thing.
     
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  3. ARuscoe

    ARuscoe Well-Known Member

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    Normally when you're dealing with a software company you buy a game, maybe run through some updates and then the next version of the game comes out and you move on.
    In this case even as someone with less than 500 hours played I have probably put £300 into DLC and so on. So the investment levels are different when your'e talking about multiple add ons which in theory could grow even more.
    I'm sure there are people out there with thousands invested in game, DLC, addons and so on.
     
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  4. pdxmark77

    pdxmark77 Active Member

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    What makes you all think DTG is failing and they are going to cancel Train Sim World? They have given no indications that is even on the plate, as I said if anything they would be canceling Fishing Sim World before the canceled their train franchise. This thread is just a bunch of hyped up rumors that are probably not even remotely true.

    Now if they would of delayed RSN by a few months, and then they released it and it looks half done, I would be a little more concerned. But there is no need to worry, the player counts for TSW is up, and will probably continue to climb.
     
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  5. MCGermanyFan

    MCGermanyFan Well-Known Member

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    How about we all just let these pessimists alone, they can create a conspiracy theory and then we'll all be happy. Nobody will argue with any opinion/fact (even though you shouldn't argue with facts, like many here do).
     
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  6. Michael Newbury

    Michael Newbury Well-Known Member

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    Like I said in a earlier post TSW is not going anywhere, it is here to stay for the long haul. Matt has said a few times on his streams saying that it wasn't going anywhere. They moved the game to the consoles for those who do not have computers can play and enjoy like the rest of us. Also there are 3 routes still in production, I solidly believe the game is here to stay.
     
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  7. londonmidland

    londonmidland Well-Known Member

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    The day third party creators release their content is the day Train Sim World will really start to take off.

    With the stuff they can do in Train Simulator, just imagine what’s potential they have with Train Sim World. The game engine could allow for some interesting dynamic events to happen which would really change the game.
     
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  8. solon

    solon Member

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    For the moment, DTG wants the same strategy as Avalanche Studio with the game "thehunter". The old version became thehunter:classic and the buyers can continue to play it with some new additions. The new game "thehunter:call of the wild" use a new engine, and is developed at the same time on PC and on console.

    But DTG is not Avalanche Studio. Have-they enough staffs to manage two games for potentially the same public ?
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2018
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  9. SamYeager270

    SamYeager270 Well-Known Member

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    All we can do is cross our fingers and hope it all turns out well.
     
  10. Medellinexpat

    Medellinexpat Well-Known Member

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    pdxmark77 & MCGermanyFan firstly can I encourage you to read posts in context. I did not suggest DTG are failing. I responded to the assertion that ‘why do you care about a company?’ The truth is that DTG has and is important to the Train Simulator community. That’s why we all want them to succeed.

    Two, having another viewpoint doesn’t make the poster a pessimist or responsible for conspiracy theories. There’s nothing wrong in being positive, but a dose of realism is also useful. It’s easy to hope and post that ‘everything is going to be great when the third party providers come on board’. However why do you jump to the downvote button when someone tries to give an argument about why TSW may be difficult for third party providors? If you have facts (which MCGermanyFan seems to believe he presents) or arguments about why those barriers to entry don’t exist, then post them. I don’t know what the license costs are that DTG might want for TSW - perhaps you do - but it’s a valid argument that they MAY deter third parties. It’s also a reasonable thought that the time to produce a route (and therefore the cost) is much higher in TSW and therefore too risky for some of the ‘mom and pop’ third party providors. It may not be right, but it’s not a conspiracy theory.

    Again people expect the editor, the editor doesn’t appear and people get upset. If you give arguments as to why it MAY be delayed people get upset at the poster. It’ll be the same with third parties. They’ll be ‘just around the corner’ then if they don’t appear people will feel ‘let down’.

    It’s like some of the content proposals that people make that are huge in scope. It’s true they would be nice, but is suggesting that they may be impractical or uneconomic pessimism?

    Lastly if you think DTG is in great financial shape I’ll suggest you may be wrong. This is a tough business and if you want to support your optimism buy as much of their (and other providors) DLC as you can afford as often as you are able. I do. But then I’m meant to be the pessimist.
     
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  11. NorthRail1

    NorthRail1 Well-Known Member

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    TS2018 on Steam has 466 dlc. This back catalogue of dlc will certainly bring money in for DTG and new releases (such as RSN) will probably bring large amounts of money for DTG and the new consoles market has also increased DTG sales significantly. There are no indications that the trains franchise of DTG is in any financial difficulty at the moment.
     
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  12. Medellinexpat

    Medellinexpat Well-Known Member

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    NorthRail1 , maybe I’m mistaken but I thought DTG had borrowed money based on the existing library as security.
     
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  13. Fabrizio520

    Fabrizio520 Active Member

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    We are talking about a digital product.
    In our days this work can be easily performed from your own home. For this reason it is not necessary that a company has many employees
     
  14. ARuscoe

    ARuscoe Well-Known Member

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    Don't know where you are, but in the UK, employees does not mean that they work in a specific location, only that they are employed by and contracted to the company and that works undertaken are then owned by that company rather than the person.
    This is distinct from contractors and subcontractors who work for themselves or other companies and where ownership of works is as per that contract.
    As an example, I was an employee of a company based in Horsforth, Leeds but I worked for them as a remote engineer so my actual place of work was my home address, though I actually undertook works at other locations around the South East
    This particular company had more employees NOT based in their offices than were in their offices (in the 8 years I worked for them I visited the offices four times)
     
  15. Medellinexpat

    Medellinexpat Well-Known Member

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    Fabrizio520 but you still need the license and if a couple of people working on a 1,000 man day effort is effectively two years of work. Then when you sell it (at say $30) you have to pay Steam and DTG commissions plus funding the whole thing until it’s complete. It’s not an easy business and I suspect most third party providors do it for the love of the hobby rather than the financial return.

    I live in Colombia (I used to be in Fintech) and several of the people I worked with now are working for gaming companies. Why? A good programmer makes $1,000 a month here so it’s just a sign that the cost of development against what game product sells for, outside the huge names, is hard.
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2018
  16. GT46PAC

    GT46PAC Active Member

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    DTG's cash cow is TrainSimulator DLCs, so they are investing in itfor more revenue.
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2018
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  17. John Doe

    John Doe New Member

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    Not quite. DTGs cash cow are the DLCs...


    MCGermanyFan and others:
    Downvoting is a very bad habit. Either I like a contribution, then thumbs up. Or I disagree, then I write this factually in addition.

    Or I could just keep my fingers still...just my 2 cents...
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2018
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  18. MCGermanyFan

    MCGermanyFan Well-Known Member

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    Hi there John. I'm not the only one downvoting things :) And I don't think downvoting is a big deal. I'll do what I want.
     
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  19. Packers525

    Packers525 New Member

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    Exactly. That’s why DTG cannot do everything for their game. They need a helping hand from third party devs to do more products and content. Indeed this brings income and attract customers.
     
  20. LastTrainToClarksville

    LastTrainToClarksville Well-Known Member

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    How could you "have put £300 into DLC and so on" for TSW? Or do you mean TS and TSW combined? This thread is about TSW alone, so why befuddle the issue? Your unfounded speculation that "there are people out there with thousands invested in game, DLC, addons and so on" also strikes me as a gross exaggeration.
     
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  21. LeadCatcher

    LeadCatcher Well-Known Member

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    I do have a question directed at no one in general, but a trend I see in forums especially when the future of a title is concerning to some...

    --- How you do you "Invest" in entertainment software -- do you "invest" in a movie when you go buy a ticket? Do you 'Invest" in golf when you have to pay greens fees? When I invest in something I expect a return on my capitol, there isn't any way to "invest' in entertainment software since no one can reasonable expect a return. Now if you stated you "spent" X amount of dollars, Pounds, Euros and you don't feel the entertainment value matched your expenditure then I could see your point. Again investing means you are looking for a future return from said investment. I have invested in horses and with the training provided sold those horses for a profit. Other horses I have spent money on since they were bought for my pleasure without any expectation of profit.

    Sorry .. just sort of a pet peeve of mine when people say they "invested" in TSW or TS201X or any other entertainment software... I will now return to my corner... :)
     
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2018
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  22. Digital Draftsman

    Digital Draftsman Well-Known Member

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    It's an investment because each piece of DLC increases the overall and future replayability (value) of your collection. For each TS2018 route you own you may spend 20 hours driving each train you own on it. If you purchase a new train and you have three routes, you'll spend 60 hours driving, thus the new train gives you a return (on your investment in routes) of 60 hours. If you purchased four routes you increase the return on each new train to 80 hours.

    If you then buy a new game, TSW for example, you may only have one route, so when purchasing a new train you'll only get 20 hours return on your purchase. If you spent that same money on a train for your TS2018 collection of four routes, you'd get 80 hours entertainment for the same money. So 'invest' is a good way to describe it as the definition is ' to allocate money in the expectation of some benefit in the future.'

    So the more content you purchase (money you invest) the greater the return in entertainment hours for each future piece of DLC you purchase.
     
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  23. Lombra

    Lombra Member

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    I normally don't use that expression, and I can't speak for how anyone else uses it, but if I did, I think you answered it pretty well yourself. You spend money expecting some sort of long term return. (I've found a few definitions that doesn't necessarily involve financial returns) Buying a game in early access is a good example of it. Paying for a movie ticket on the other hand is not an investment. You pay the ticket, see the movie, and you're not getting anything more out of your money. Unless perhaps the movie somehow changed your life.

    I can't help but mention Flight Sim World. I think a lot of people bought in expecting it to evolve into much more. I would call that an investment. I might call any purchase that you get long term use out of an investment, so I don't see why software (entertainment or no) should be any different. Personally I would narrow entertainment software "investment" down to also include an expectation of further development of the product.
     
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  24. LeadCatcher

    LeadCatcher Well-Known Member

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    I was an early adopter of FSW, again, the money was spent for entertainment, not investing in anything. I can still use my copy of FSW and do so from time to time. So went FSW development stopped, I lost nothing since I still have the entertainment value of the software. I can’t even stretch the concept if more people had “invested” in FSW and development continued that my initial “investment” would not have provided me a return since I would need to spend more money for new DLC, Airports, missions etc.

    In fact, though I have never totaled the amount of money I have spent on TS201x and having over 4500 hours in the simulation, I can view that money as divestment since I probably could have spent that time more productivily ...

    BUT we are splitting hairs here, I spend money on my hobbies, if one wants to think of it as investment so be it.
     
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  25. Digital Draftsman

    Digital Draftsman Well-Known Member

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    So when you purchase a locomotive DLC you have absolutely no expectation that you'll be able to use it on future routes?

    When I purchased the GP40-2 DLC for TSW, I did so with the expectation that I would be able to use it on future routes. When NEC came along, well a short while after because they lauched it without freight services, I then got several more hours entertainment from the GP40-2. When a new American route is released, I will get yet more hours entertainment from my intial purchase of the GP40-2. That to me is a reasonable expectation and and thus my purchase is an investment by the definition of the word, I pay money now, with the expecation of future entertainment, but it's a gamble like any investment, as DTG may not create another route for the CSX GP40-2, in which case I might get a low entertainment return on my initial investment.
     
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  26. solon

    solon Member

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    Is it the only active post in this forum?
     
  27. Digital Draftsman

    Digital Draftsman Well-Known Member

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    I've put together a graph to try to demostrate the issue TSW is facing and why it will soon fail if we do not get any tools.

    The graph shows the daily peak number of players for TSW. As you can see, when RSN was released there was spike in peak players. It's a new DLC, it's exciting and interesting. Then as time goes by the peak number of players decreases, which stands to reason as it's not as exciting and interesting as it was when it was new. Both a spike and decrease should be expected, however the important thing to note is that the level of peak players has almost returned to pre release levels and we have no new DLC annouced, let alone released.

    For TSW to be successful, at the release of the next DLC the number of peak players needs to be at a higher level than before the release of previous DLC. If TSW had tools it would allow users to create and share scenarios, as well as use their locomotives and rolling stock on previous routes, this would result in the peak player numbers remaining higher for longer after a new DLC. It would also allow third party developers to produce DLC, reducing the time between new releases, and thus peak player numbers will be higher on release, with each new DLC building on the success of the last.

    Prior to WSR being released the peak players were around 400 per day, prior to RSN they were 280 per day. TSW is dying and very few on this forum seem to be concerned. TSW is the best chance for the future of our hobby, if it fails then our train sim hobby will stagnate for years to come. This is why I am frustrated and impatient regarding the tools.

    peak_players_rsn.jpg
     
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  28. MCGermanyFan

    MCGermanyFan Well-Known Member

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    Because it's not dying. It's only at the beginning. DTG is already doing things to get the average player figure up. At the moment, nobody really cares about the stats since the game is not "fully" released yet (editor, multiplayer, etc. coming eventually)
     
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  29. Techie

    Techie New Member

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    Again, I just think you are so paranoid, this whole thing is eating you up. You are looking for every tiny detail to fuel your idea that just isn't true. This is why we aren't concerned... we know TSW isn't going anywhere.
     
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  30. Anthony Pecoraro

    Anthony Pecoraro Well-Known Member

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    More than that. There are scenarios, and services that add up to lots of replayability. Not to mention riding trains and walking routes to take screenshots and look for collectibles.
     
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  31. Anthony Pecoraro

    Anthony Pecoraro Well-Known Member

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    The tools are coming. Give them time to work out what they need to.
     
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  32. haanuman

    haanuman New Member

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    The title had me for a second.
     
  33. Anna_AWVR

    Anna_AWVR Member

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    Finally! Thank you! Someone with some common sense. And what's all this about TSW being the only chance for our hobby? Has he never heard of Run8, or TANE, or OpenRails or Diesel Railcar Simulator? This paranoia is nonsensical,

    Draftsman, stop looking at the stats and look at the community itself, cause we're doing just fine. Also people dont play TSW every single day (I know I sure as hell don't) So the stats arent accurate. Also stop with the tools. They will be out when they are complete.
     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2018
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  34. LeadCatcher

    LeadCatcher Well-Known Member

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    This is getting rather ridiculous, sure there is going to be a peak in any game / simulation when new DLC or feature is released then a drop. And guess what, there will be another peak when the next DLC released followed by a drop. But guess what - to get that peak, this means the DLC has been purchased and thus the revenue has flowed to the company. DTG MAKES NOTHING when I run routes I have all ready purchased. They do make money when the route is sold. So if you really want to work yourself into a worry feast - go back and start looking at the peaks, not the average.
     
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  35. Medellinexpat

    Medellinexpat Well-Known Member

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    Digital Draftsman posts a perfectly reasonable post and a bunch of people jump in and kick it.

    MCGermanyFan I agree that DTG are doing things to get the number of average users up. However, looking at the graph the argument is that they aren’t succeeding. As for the agreement that nobody cares about the stats as the game isn’t complete I promise you one group will be. DTG Management (as would any management team) because they’ll want to see SOME REASONABLE progress to keep funding the development.

    Techie ‘ you are looking for every tiny detail’. How did usage (probably the second most important metric to DTG after sales) become ‘a tiny detail’?

    Anna_AWVR (and where to start) so we ignore the statistics and look at the community? How big is that community then? DTG are likely spending millions on this product. This is not a big community. Incidentally not playing the game every day doesn’t invalidate the data. All it’s showing is daily peak number of users, NOT the total users.

    LeadCatcher there’s some validity in what you say, but it’s difficult to ignore the fact that usage isn’t increasing more rapidly. If nothing else the console release should have increased that figure significantly. The other hole in the argument is that if people buy it and then don’t use it very much, then potentially they are less likely to buy the next DLC.

    While I agree with Digital Draftsman about the need for an editor and third party content I’m not sure that accounts for all the disappointing trend in pick up. Price shouldn’t be a barrier as it’s often on sale. So, why aren’t more TS users moving over? I can see it has better graphics but in just about everything else (DLC availability, freeware, community) it loses out at this point in time.

    Perhaps those who didn’t like @Digital Draftsman’s post could provide their feedback on

    - ok, it’s not complete as a game. It’s not that new incidentally so what do people think are likely timeframes are for ‘completing it’? 6 months, a year, more?

    - on third party providors is there any evidence that they are working on third party content? Has anyone asked them? I for example asked some 3rd Party providors about their involvement in TS 64 bit and I got responses. Interesting responses.

    - to @Anna_AWVR’s point is there such a diversity of train simulator games out there that we shouldn’t worry about the future of the hobby? Is Diesel Rail Simulator a real competitor to the DTG products? What are Run8 plans to support the large and active U.K. simulator community?

    Incidentally I think Digital Draftsman has been and is probably way more involved with train simulation that most anyone else on the board. Dismissing his concerns so easily (he may be way more ITK than most) might not be wise.
     
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  36. LeadCatcher

    LeadCatcher Well-Known Member

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    My main point Medellinexpat -- there are much more important things to worry about than incessantly being concerned over the success or failure of a title -- So I will leave that to all who are concerned to debate the topic, Myself - I am going to run a service or two and get on with my chores. Have a great day and Best.
     
  37. Digital Draftsman

    Digital Draftsman Well-Known Member

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    The trend of the peaks is to get smaller (fewer sales), but the valleys after the peaks were always a little higher than previous ones. Below is a graph I have previously posted in another thread which shows that. If the peak player numbers drop back to pre RSN release levels, the implication is that the growth is now topping out. If you look at both graphs (ETS2 and TSW) you'll see that after each DLC release the peak players never drops back to the previous level, i.e. there is some growth. The RSN release is looking like the first time it will drop back below the previous valley. If nothing major changes, e.g. tools being released, then it's likely TSW won't grow beyond where it is now, and if where it is now is not sustainable, then TSW kicks the bucket like FSW did.

    player_numbers.jpg
     
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  38. Michael Newbury

    Michael Newbury Well-Known Member

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    I cannot believe that this is still being kicked around like this.. TSW is not going away there is a lot to come yet, people just need to be patient.
     
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  39. Medellinexpat

    Medellinexpat Well-Known Member

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    Digital Draftsman do you have any later data for TSW - something that captures the new console users?
     
  40. londonmidland

    londonmidland Well-Known Member

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    Anyone ever heard the phrase “Time is money”?

    Yes, all developers need time to develop their tools and content but people only have so much patience. If a reliable timeframe was given, I think less people would be going on about the tools and other things.

    The main thing here is not that people are being inpatient or that they are taking too long to develop the tools, it’s simply the lack of information and communication from the developers.
     
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  41. Lombra

    Lombra Member

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    Pretty sure that's data from Steam, ie no console data available. (which may or may not change the argument entirely)
     
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  42. Medellinexpat

    Medellinexpat Well-Known Member

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    Lombra you are right it has to be Steam data. So, there’s no way of tracking console usage (other than DTG know how much they’ve sold)? Interesting.
     
  43. Digital Draftsman

    Digital Draftsman Well-Known Member

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    Unfortunately not. As Lombra says, it's data derived from Steam, so it only includes PC players.

    As consoles are still two DLCs behind the PC I think it's safe to assume that the PC still reigns supreme, otherwise DTG would be developing for consoles first before releasing to PC later. As DTG still favor the PC market we can assume that if we had comparible data for the PS4 and Xbox One they wouldn't look as good as the PC data, or else DTG would have made console players their primary demographic.
     
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  44. Schnauzahpowahz

    Schnauzahpowahz Well-Known Member

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    Nice graph, but I wana see a pie chart ;)
     
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  45. AyrtonS8

    AyrtonS8 Well-Known Member

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    I am kinda unsure about TSWs future. If things continue the way they are, which is just new DLC, then I don't see much of a future for TSW. I think if Dovetail deliver on the promises about Editor Tools and Multiplayer etc, then I think player numbers will increase and things will look brighter for TSW.

    It has been 2 years now since we first heard about TSW and all we have had so far is just DLC and the game put onto consoles. I think we need to see the Editor Tools soon and 3rd Party Developers getting involved with the game. I feel there is just not enough in the game to keep me entertained. Having the community involved making new content and features for TSW may help boost player numbers and time spent in the game as there will be new things to try out and more reasons to play the game.
    One of the main reasons for TS20XX success is the communitys support and content for the game. I think that is what will help TSW grow but it isn't there yet.
     
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  46. Anthony Pecoraro

    Anthony Pecoraro Well-Known Member

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    We’ll be getting the tools and DTG has been fixing bugs.
     
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  47. Michael Newbury

    Michael Newbury Well-Known Member

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    Yes on both there is no timeline for the editing tools but they are coming, and they are working on bug fixes as well.
     
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  48. cActUsjUiCe

    cActUsjUiCe Well-Known Member

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    It makes me feel a whole lot better when I still consider the game as a beta. Until the editor comes out, this game is still in beta.
     
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  49. londonmidland

    londonmidland Well-Known Member

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    There’s only so many times you can say ‘soon’ and nothing else before people loose interest. How long is a piece of string?

    It is not like DTG do not know how far in development their tools are. I don’t see what the big secret is. They either are or aren’t coming out. There’s no point dragging it out to eventually say no, it isn’t coming, for example.

    It’s no wonder people get frustrated with the little info we get..
     
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  50. StratPlayer62

    StratPlayer62 Well-Known Member

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    Even though you paid full price for a game that was advertised as ready to go?

    I remember the beta release, the full release certainly was not considered a beta.
     
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